Former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko is quietly positioning himself for a dramatic political comeback, with indications that he is preparing to enter the Nairobi gubernatorial race under his newly registered National Equality Development Party (NEDP) in a move that could significantly alter the shape of the 2027 contest.
Sonko’s expected return is already causing unease in Nairobi’s political circles, not because he is seen as the most polished candidate in the race, but because he remains one of the few city politicians with a deep and emotional connection to the capital’s grassroots voters, especially in the informal settlements and low-income estates where his populist politics, cash-handout image and direct style of engagement still resonate strongly.
For many of Sonko’s rivals, that is the real danger.
Nairobi politics has always been less about polished manifestos and more about visibility, street presence, emotional connection and the ability to convince struggling residents that you understand their daily pain. Sonko built his brand on exactly that formula. Long after he was kicked out of office, he has remained relevant among sections of the city’s poor who still see him as a leader who was accessible, flashy, generous and willing to intervene directly in personal crises in a way many conventional politicians do not.
That lingering support base is what makes his possible return such a serious political development.
If Sonko formally joins the race, he will not just be another name on the ballot. He will immediately become a disruptive force capable of splitting voting blocs, shifting campaign calculations and forcing every other serious contender to rethink how they plan to approach Nairobi’s complex and often volatile voter map. His presence would be especially felt in areas where personal loyalty and populist appeal matter more than elite endorsements, party slogans or polished boardroom politics.
Sonko’s new political vehicle, the NEDP, gives him a platform through which he can attempt to stage that comeback without depending on the goodwill of the larger political formations that have previously complicated his ambitions. It also gives him room to market himself once again as an outsider fighting entrenched political interests, even though he is himself one of the city’s most recognisable political figures.
That outsider-insider contradiction has always been part of Sonko’s political appeal. He is deeply embedded in Nairobi politics yet still manages to sell himself as the man fighting a cruel and detached system on behalf of ordinary people. It is a style that frustrates his critics but repeatedly keeps him relevant.
His possible return also comes at a time when Nairobi’s gubernatorial contest is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races in the country. The capital remains politically strategic, financially powerful and symbolically important, meaning every major political camp wants influence over who runs City Hall. Sonko’s entry threatens to complicate those calculations because he does not fit neatly into the plans of the establishment candidates who would prefer a more controlled contest.
Instead, Sonko brings unpredictability.
He brings name recognition.
He brings noise.
He brings a loyal base that cannot be dismissed.
And most importantly, he brings the ability to turn the Nairobi governor race into a street-level popularity contest rather than a purely elite political negotiation.
For his opponents, that means campaign strategy can no longer be built only around endorsements, coalition arithmetic and media optics. If Sonko gets in, they will have to deal with the harder reality of Nairobi politics: a city where anger, poverty, visibility and raw charisma can still override the carefully packaged messaging of establishment campaigns.
His critics will of course point to his troubled record in office, the controversies that dogged his tenure and the legal and political baggage he still carries. Those issues will remain part of the conversation if he officially launches his bid. But Sonko has never depended on a clean establishment image to win public sympathy. In fact, much of his political strength has come from presenting himself as a flawed but present figure in a city where many leaders are seen as distant, arrogant or invisible once elected.
That is why his return cannot be treated lightly.
Even if Sonko does not ultimately win, his presence alone could reshape the race by eating into the support base of other candidates, forcing alliances to shift and making Nairobi’s contest far more competitive than some political players may have hoped. He has the ability to turn the election into a referendum not just on City Hall leadership, but on who truly commands loyalty in the capital’s streets, estates and informal settlements.
For now, Nairobi’s political class is watching closely as Sonko’s next move takes shape.
If he officially throws his hat into the ring under NEDP, the battle for City Hall will instantly become more chaotic, more emotional and far more difficult to predict. And in Nairobi politics, that is usually when the real contest begins-Kenya Today.